Hurricane Rafael Public Advisory

000
WTNT33 KNHC 061755
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rafael Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
100 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

...RAFAEL BECOMES A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE 
COAST OF WESTERN CUBA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING 
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN 
CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 82.3W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning 
for the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila and Sancti Spiritus. 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque,
Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, and Cienfuegos
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the
Channel 5 Bridge
* Dry Tortugas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning areas.  

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States, 
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor 
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast 
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the 
United States, please monitor products issued by your national 
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located
near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 82.3 West. Rafael is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A general northwestward
motion is anticipated over the next day or so, followed by a gradual
west-northwestward turn in the Gulf of Mexico. On the forecast
track, Rafael is expected make landfall in western Cuba this 
afternoon.  Rafael is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico tonight.

Satellite data and preliminary reports from an Air Force Reserve 
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated that the maximum sustained winds 
have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Some 
additional strengthening is likely before Rafael makes landfall in 
Cuba this afternoon.  Rafael is forecast to weaken over Cuba but is 
expected to emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as a 
hurricane.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km). An automated weather station at Cayo Largo Del Sur, 
Cuba, reported sustained winds of 58 mph (93 km/h) with a gust to 
83 mph (134 km/h) within the past few hours. 

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force reconnaissance 
aircraft data is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in western Cuba and the
Isle of Youth through the evening.  Tropical storm conditions are 
expected in parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle 
Florida Keys today and tonight.  

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean 
through early Thursday, particularly across the Cayman Islands into 
western Cuba. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected across 
portions of western Cuba, with isolated higher totals up to 12 
inches anticipated across areas of higher terrain. This will lead 
to areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands 
additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is expected.

Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and
Middle Florida Keys.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels as much as 9 to
14 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along
the southern coast of Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area, including
the Isle of Youth.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through tonight over
the Florida Keys and far southwestern Florida mainland.

SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the
western Caribbean during the next day or so and will also spread
across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week
into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown