Hurricane Rafael Forecast Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 072035
TCDAT3

Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
300 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

Rafael has made a resurgence this afternoon. The hurricane has 
apparently mixed out some of the dry air from earlier today and 
become better organized, with a ragged eye that has emerged in 
satellite imagery and a more cohesive ring of deep convection 
surrounding its center. On the last pass through the eye earlier 
this afternoon, the Air Force Hurricane Hunters found that the 
central pressure had fallen several millibars from earlier passes. 
They also reported a few observations of 700-mb flight-level winds 
in excess of 100 kt, with a peak of 107 kt. These data support 
raising the initial intensity to 90 kt. Another Air Force Hurricane 
Hunter aircraft will investigate Rafael this evening.

The improved structure of the hurricane could make it more resilient 
to the negative effects of dry air and westerly shear in the near 
term, so some additional strengthening cannot be ruled out tonight. 
However, the overall model trends favor weakening through much of 
the 5-day forecast period as Rafael moves into a drier mid-level 
environment and encounters stronger shear by this weekend. The 
updated NHC intensity prediction has been nudged upward through 24 h 
and downward at later forecast times, but still lies near or above 
the simple- and corrected-consensus aids. It is possible that the 
hostile environmental conditions could cause Rafael to weaken even 
faster and lose organized convection by the end of the 5-day period.

Rafael is moving west-northwestward (295/8 kt) around a mid-level 
ridge over the southwestern Atlantic and the Florida Peninsula. As 
this ridge builds to its north, the hurricane is expected to move 
generally westward through Saturday. There is still quite a bit of 
track forecast uncertainty thereafter, with larger than normal 
spread among the various track models. Many of the models (including 
the ECMWF, UKMET, and regional hurricane models) slow Rafael down 
and turn it southwestward in response to ridging over the western 
Gulf and northern Mexico. However, the GFS and Canadian models show 
a slow northward turn between an upper trough over the central U.S. 
and a ridge to the east. No major changes were made to the NHC track 
forecast this cycle, which continues to favor the former scenario. 
However, future larger adjustments to the track forecast could be 
required. If model solutions like the GFS were to verify, Rafael 
would encounter a stronger shear environment and likely weaken 
faster than shown in the official NHC forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening 
surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast for the next 
few days.

2. Rafael is forecast to move slowly over the south-central Gulf of 
Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern 
and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/2100Z 24.7N  86.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 24.7N  87.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  08/1800Z 24.7N  89.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  09/0600Z 24.8N  90.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  09/1800Z 25.0N  91.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  10/0600Z 25.2N  92.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  10/1800Z 25.1N  92.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  11/1800Z 23.7N  93.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  12/1800Z 22.0N  94.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart