Hurricane Rafael Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT43 KNHC 070252
TCDAT3

Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
1000 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

The eye of Rafael made landfall just after the last advisory was 
issued with an estimated intensity of 100 kt.  Since then, the 
center has crossed western Cuba into the southeastern Gulf of 
Mexico, and a combination of land interaction and increasing 
southwesterly shear has caused some weakening.  Reports from NOAA 
and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the 
central pressure has risen to near 969 mb, and that the maximum 
winds have decreased to near 90 kt. In addition, radar data from 
Cuba and the Key West WSR-88D show that the eyewall structure has 
decayed, with the deep convection now confined to the northeastern 
quadrant.

The initial motion is 315/11.  Rafael is on the southwest side of a 
low- to mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and the Florida 
Peninsula. This ridge is forecast to build westward in response to 
a developing deep-layer trough over the southwestern United States.
This evolution should cause the cyclone to move westward across the 
Gulf of Mexico with some decrease in forward speed during the next 
2-3 days.  The track guidance remains divergent after 72 h.  The 
GFS and Canadian models show the cyclone being caught in southerly 
flow between the deep-layer trough and a ridge over the eastern 
Gulf of Mexico and turn the system northward.  The ECMWF and UKMET 
forecast the ridge to be more over the western Gulf of Mexico 
between Rafael and the trough, and thus turn the cyclone 
southwestward.  The GFS and ECMWF ensemble runs have tracks that 
support both of these possibilities.  Given the spread and 
uncertainty, this low-confidence latter part of the forecast track 
shows a slow west-southwestward motion close the the consensus 
models.

The global models suggest that the current shear should decrease in 
about 24 h, then increase again later in the forecast period.  The 
forecast track keeps the system over relatively warm sea surface 
temperatures, especially if it turns southwestward.  However, all 
of the guidance agrees that the airmass over the Gulf will be quite 
dry, and this should lead to gradual weakening even if the system 
stays over the warm water. There remains a lot of uncertainty in 
the intensity forecast, as the environment is much more hostile to 
the north of the forecast track and somewhat more favorable to the 
south of the forecast track.  The intensity forecast follows the 
overall trend of the guidance, but the guidance itself has a 
significant spread.

Since the eyewall structure has decayed and the system is moving 
away from western Cuba, there will be no more hourly updates for 
Rafael.  Three-hourly public advisories will continue as long as 
watches and warnings are in effect.

Key Messages:

1. While Rafael is now moving away from western Cuba, a hurricane 
warning remains in effect for this region where a life-threatening 
storm surge, damaging hurricane-force winds, and destructive waves 
are still possible.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected in
the Lower and Middle Florida Keys tonight.

3. Hurricane Rafael will continue to bring periods of heavy rain to 
western Cuba into Thursday. Flash flooding and mudslides are 
possible along the higher terrain.

4. Rafael is forecast to meander over the south-central Gulf of
Mexico this weekend and early next week.  Interests in the southern
and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0300Z 23.5N  83.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 24.4N  84.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 24.6N  86.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 24.6N  88.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  09/0000Z 24.6N  89.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  09/1200Z 24.8N  90.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  10/0000Z 25.0N  91.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  11/0000Z 24.8N  92.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  12/0000Z 24.2N  93.3W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven