Hurricane Rafael Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT43 KNHC 062049
TCDAT3

Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
400 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

The radar and satellite presentation of Rafael continued to improve
after the release of the previous advisory with the eye becoming 
quite distinct around midday in geostationary satellite imagery.  
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft was able to fly a 
couple of passes through the center earlier this afternoon and 
measured a peak flight-level wind of 104 kt and an extrapolated 
minimum pressure of 956 mb.  The aircraft was unable to sample the 
northeastern quadrant where the maximum winds were likely located.  
Therefore, the initial intensity was increased to 100 kt on the 
1800 UTC intermediate advisory.  The 100-kt initial intensity is 
supported by a blend of the various UW/CIMSS objective Dvorak 
estimates, and UW/CIMSS SATCON which peaked near that value. Over 
the past few hours it appears that an eyewall replacement cycle is 
underway as the eye has become less distinct in satellite imagery, 
and radar data has shown the erosion of the smaller inner-eyewall. 

With the eyewall replacement ongoing, little additional change in 
strength is expected before Rafael makes landfall in western Cuba 
within the next hour or so.  Some weakening is expected as the 
storm crosses Cuba, but Rafael is likely to remain a hurricane over 
the southeastern and southern Gulf of Mexico during the next few 
days.  After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and 
significantly drier air are likely to result in weakening.  As 
noted earlier, there are some models that take Rafael southwestward 
late in the period over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico where 
environmental conditions could be less hostile.  If additional 
southward adjustments to the track forecast are needed on 
subsequent advisories, it is likely that some modest upward 
adjustments to the longer-range intensity may also be required.  

The initial motion estimate is northwestward or 320/11 kt.  Rafael 
is expected to continue to move around the southwestern side of
a mid-level ridge over the southwestern Atlantic during the next 
day or so.  After that time, the ridge is forecast to build 
westward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico which should cause Rafael 
to turn more westward over the southern Gulf of Mexico.  By 72 
hours, the spread in the track guidance increases once again, with 
the GFS showing a more northward solution than most of the 
remainder of the track guidance.  The NHC track forecast has been 
shifted southward once again to be in better agreement with the 
various consensus aids.  It is possible that future southward and 
southwestward adjustment will be needed as several of the models 
now show the cyclone moving west-southwestward over the southwestern 
Gulf by the end of the period.  

Key Messages:

1. Rafael is forecast to cross western Cuba as a major hurricane 
this afternoon and evening. A hurricane warning is in effect for 
this region, where a life-threatening storm surge, damaging 
hurricane-force winds, and destructive waves are expected.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected in
the Lower and Middle Florida Keys beginning later today and tonight.

3. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain to the Cayman Islands and
western Cuba through Thursday. Flash flooding and mudslides are
expected in areas of higher terrain in western Cuba.

4. Rafael is forecast to meander over the south-central Gulf of 
Mexico this weekend and early next week.  Interests in the southern 
and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this 
system. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/2100Z 22.6N  82.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 23.6N  83.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 24.1N  85.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 24.2N  87.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 24.2N  89.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  09/0600Z 24.3N  90.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  09/1800Z 24.5N  91.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  10/1800Z 24.6N  92.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  11/1800Z 24.5N  93.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown