Hurricane Rafael Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT43 KNHC 060851
TCDAT3

Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
400 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

Rafael continues to intensify as it approaches western Cuba.  Deep
convection within the hurricane's Central Dense Overcast (CDO) is
very intense, with cloud tops colder than -80 deg C.  There are
also strong convective banding features surrounding the CDO.
Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate a
closed eyewall at times, with the central pressure falling at a
rate of around 2 mb per hour.  Based on the highest flight-level
winds reported from the aircraft so far, the current intensity is
set at 80 kt for this advisory.  Rafael's inner core is relatively
small in size, with hurricane-force winds extending about 25 n mi
from its 10-15 n mi wide eye.

The hurricane continues its northwestward trek, and the initial
motion is a slightly faster 315/12 kt.  For the next day or two,
Rafael should  continue to move along the southwestern side of a
mid-level high pressure system and move over the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico through Thursday night.  After 48 hours the track guidance
becomes very divergent, with a number of model solutions taking the
system toward the southwest Gulf in 3-4 days.  It appears that,
during the latter part of the forecast period, a mid-level ridge 
could build to the north of the tropical cyclone.  This could
force Rafael to turn to the west or south of west in 4 to 5 days.
In order to maintain continuity from the previous NHC predictions,
the official track forecast is shifted to the left of the previous
one, but not as far as dictated by the latest model consensus.  If
future model runs continue to show this trend, however, additional
leftward adjustment to the NHC track may be required.

Rafael is expected remain in an environment of high oceanic heat
content, low vertical wind shear and a very moist low- to
mid-tropospheric air mass until the center reaches western Cuba.
Therefore, the cyclone will probably be nearing major hurricane
status at landfall in Cuba.  Once the system moves over the Gulf of
Mexico, the environment should become increasingly less conducive
for Rafael to maintain its intensity.  Increasing southwesterly
shear, significantly drier air, and gradually decreasing SSTs are
likely to result in weakening.  The official forecast remains near
the high end of the model guidance in the 3- to 5-day forecast
period.  This is similar to the previous NHC intensity forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Rafael is expected to strengthen to near major hurricane
intensity before reaches western Cuba and the Isle of Youth
today.  A hurricane warning is in effect for this region, where
damaging hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge, and
destructive waves are also expected.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Lower and Middle
Florida Keys beginning today and tonight.

3. It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could
bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast.  Residents in this
area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast.

4. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the
Western Caribbean through early Thursday, including the islands of
Jamaica and the Caymans along with western Cuba. Flash flooding and
mudslides are expected along the higher terrain in western Cuba.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0900Z 20.6N  81.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 22.0N  82.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  07/0600Z 23.6N  84.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  07/1800Z 24.3N  85.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  08/0600Z 24.6N  87.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  08/1800Z 24.9N  88.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  09/0600Z 25.2N  89.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  10/0600Z 26.3N  91.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  11/0600Z 27.0N  92.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch