Hurricane Rafael Forecast Advisory

000
WTNT23 KNHC 061452
TCMAT3

HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182024
1500 UTC WED NOV 06 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N  81.9W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
34 KT.......100NE  80SE  40SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N  81.9W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N  81.6W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.8N  83.2W...OVER CUBA
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.9N  84.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 24.3N  86.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  40SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.4N  88.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  40SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.6N  89.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.8N  90.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 25.7N  92.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 25.7N  92.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N  81.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 06/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN