Hurricane Rafael Forecast Advisory

000
WTNT23 KNHC 060850
TCMAT3

HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182024
0900 UTC WED NOV 06 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N  81.3W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  20SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  80SE  20SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N  81.3W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N  80.9W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.0N  82.6W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.6N  84.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.3N  85.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 24.6N  87.2W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.9N  88.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 25.2N  89.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 26.3N  91.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 27.0N  92.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N  81.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 06/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS