Hurricane Rafael Forecast Advisory

000
WTNT23 KNHC 060254
TCMAT3

HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182024
0300 UTC WED NOV 06 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N  80.4W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  20SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT.......100NE  90SE  20SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N  80.4W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N  79.9W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.2N  81.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.0N  83.2W...ON THE N CUBA COAST
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.3N  84.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 24.8N  85.9W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 25.1N  87.4W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 25.4N  89.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 26.7N  91.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 27.9N  91.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N  80.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 06/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN