Issued at 200 AM MST Mon Oct 06 2025
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 060842 TCDEP1 Hurricane Priscilla Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025 200 AM MST Mon Oct 06 2025 Priscilla is gradually becoming better organized on satellite images over the past few hours. There is a rather impressive-looking convective band wrapping around the western, southern and eastern portions of the circulation, with cloud tops to -80 deg C or colder in the band. Cirrus cloud motions indicate that the upper-level outflow pattern is expanding at this time. The advisory intensity estimate is set at 75 kt based on a blend of subjective and objective intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS. The hurricane is moving a little west of north or 340/5 kt. A more northwestward track with some acceleration is expected by later today as mid-level ridging becomes better established over Mexico. There continues to be a fair amount of spread in the model guidance tracks, with the GFS on the southwestern side of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF and corrected consensus, HCCA, near the northeastern side. The official forecast is nudged ever so slightly to the right of the previous forecast based mainly on Priscilla's more northward motion over the past several hours. The NHC forecast is close to the latest ECMWF and Google DeepMind ensemble solutions. Vertical wind shear appears to be abating somewhat over the system. Priscilla will be moving over very warm waters for the next couple of days and the environment looks to be quite conducive for strengthening. As noted earlier, if Priscilla develops a tighter inner core, rapid intensification will become more likely. The official intensity forecast shows significant additional strengthening over the next 48 hours and is in line with the latest corrected consensus intensity model guidance. Steady weakening is likely to commence in 2-3 days due to the tropical cyclone crossing a sharp SST gradient and heading over cooler waters. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico within the watch area today. Interests in the southern portion of Baja California Sur should also monitor the progress of Priscilla. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Priscilla will impact coastal sections of southwestern Mexico today, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in areas of higher terrain. 3. Swells generated by Priscilla are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will reach the coasts of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 17.2N 107.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 17.9N 107.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 18.8N 109.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 19.7N 110.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 20.7N 111.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 08/1800Z 21.7N 113.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 22.8N 114.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 25.3N 116.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 26.5N 116.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Pasch
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