000 WTPZ31 KNHC 121743 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Pamela Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 1200 PM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 ...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING PAMELA... ...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 109.4W ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Bahia Tempehuaya to Altata * South of Escuinapa to Cabo Corrientes * Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Los Barilles to Cabo San Lucas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, in this case within the next 18 hours, producing conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 18 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 18 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Pamela was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 109.4 West. Pamela is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion should continue this afternoon, followed by a faster northeastward motion tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Pamela will pass well south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula through tonight, and make landfall in west-central Mexico within the hurricane warning area Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in intensity is expected this afternoon. Steady strengthening is forecast tonight and early Wednesday, and Pamela could be near major hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of Mexico Wednesday morning. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The minimum central pressure recently measured by the reconnaissance aircraft was 991 mb (29.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Pamela can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near where the center of Pamela makes landfall in southwestern Mexico. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area by late tonight or early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning as early as this evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area in Baja California del Sur this afternoon. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Pamela is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durango...4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Across southern portions of Baja California Sur...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma...3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This may result in flash and urban flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Pamela will begin to affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula, southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico beginning later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart