Hurricane Oscar Forecast Discussion

074 
WTNT41 KNHC 191755
TCDAT1

Hurricane Oscar Special Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162024
200 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

This is a special advisory to update the initial and forecast 
intensity for Oscar and current watches and warnings. An Air Force 
Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission is currently flying through the 
system, and in their second southwest-to-northeast leg found 700 mb 
flight level winds of 76 kt, and a minimum central pressure of 989 
mb. The plane also reported a very small 3 n mi wide eye. A 
dropsonde recently launched in the northern quadrant also had a 150 
m boundary layer mean wind of 80 kt. A blend of these data supports 
upgrading Oscar to a hurricane this advisory with maximum sustained 
winds of 70 kt. The intensity forecast has been updated accordingly, 
and is substantially higher than the previous one.

Due to this unexpected higher intensity, the government of the
Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Turks and Caicos
Islands and Southeastern Bahamas. The government of Cuba has also
issued a Hurricane Watch for the same area currently under a
Tropical Storm Warning.


Key Messages:

1. Oscar is now expected to bring hurricane conditions to portions
of the southeastern Bahamas, Turks and Caicos Islands, and eastern
Cuba during the next day or so. A Hurricane Warning has now been
issued for those locations.

2. Oscar is expected to produce a dangerous storm surge on the
Turks and Caicos Islands beginning this evening.

3. Locally heavy rainfall is possible across the Turks and Caicos
Islands and the southeastern Bahamas later today and tonight. These
rains are expected to spread to eastern Cuba on Sunday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1800Z 21.4N  70.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 21.4N  71.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  20/1200Z 21.2N  73.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  21/0000Z 20.9N  74.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  21/1200Z 21.0N  75.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  22/0000Z 21.6N  75.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  22/1200Z 22.5N  75.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  23/1200Z 25.1N  72.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi