Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data

Hurricane Orlene Public Advisory


787 
WTPZ31 KNHC 030555
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Orlene Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162022
1200 AM MDT Mon Oct 03 2022

...ORLENE CAUSING HURRICANE CONDITIONS IN LAS ISLAS MARIAS 
ISLANDS...
...EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE TO 
PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 106.5W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM N OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* The coast of mainland Mexico from San Blas to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas
* The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Mazatlan to Bahia
Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of western and northwestern
Mexico should monitor the progress of Orlene.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Orlene was
located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 106.5 West.  Orlene is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a general
northward to north-northeastward motion is expected to continue over
the next day or so.  On the forecast track, the center of Orlene 
will be moving away from Las Islas Marias this morning, and reach 
the coast of mainland Mexico within the warning area later today or 
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Weakening is expected during the next day or so, but Orlene 
is forecast to be remain a hurricane when it reaches southwestern 
Mexico.  Rapid weakening is forecast after Orlene moves onshore, and 
the system should dissipate on Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90
miles (150 km).  Isla Maria Madre reported a sustained wind of 67 
mph (107 km/h) with a gust to 92 mph (148 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in Las Islas Marias for the 
next several hours.  Hurricane conditions are expected in the 
warning area along the coast of mainland Mexico today, with 
tropical storm conditions beginning this morning.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward in the
tropical storm warning area through early today.  Hurricane
conditions are possible along the coast of mainland Mexico within
the hurricane watch area early today.

RAINFALL: Orlene is expected to produce the following rainfall
across portions of southwestern Mexico through Tuesday:

* Islas Marias: 6 to 10 inches, with local amounts of 14 inches.
* Nayarit and southern Sinaloa: 3 to 6 inches with local amounts of
10 inches.
* Jalisco, Colima, and southwest Durango: 1 to 3 inches with local
amounts of 5 inches.

These rainfall amounts are likely to lead to flash flooding, as
well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to cause coastal
flooding in the Islas Marias and along the coast of mainland Mexico
in the warning area in regions of onshore winds.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Orlene are affecting the west coast
of Mexico and will spread northward to the southern portion of the
Baja California peninsula and the Gulf of California over the next
day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch




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