Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 27 2025
467 WTPZ44 KNHC 272032 TCDEP4 Hurricane Narda Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 27 2025 After holding steady in strength for more than a day, Narda has now begun the expected weakening trend. Satellite images show that the inner core has become ragged and the cloud pattern is now notably more asymmetric. The latest satellite intensity estimates range from 63 to 77 kt, and based on that data, the initial intensity is lowered to 70 kt. A combination of progressively cooler waters, drier air, and a gradual increase in shear should cause steady to rapid weakening. Narda is expected to fall below hurricane strength tonight and decay to a post-tropical low in about 36 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one and in good agreement with most of the model guidance. Narda continues to slow down and is gradually turning to the right. This trend should continue while the ridge to the north of the cyclone breaks down due to a large-scale trough moving across the north Pacific. The system is forecast turn northward in a day or so, and continue in that general direction until it dissipates around the middle of next week. This track forecast is similar to the previous one and near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 18.2N 125.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 18.9N 125.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 19.9N 126.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 20.8N 125.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 29/1800Z 21.4N 125.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 30/0600Z 21.9N 125.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1800Z 22.5N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1800Z 23.8N 126.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Source link