Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Sep 26 2025
756 WTPZ44 KNHC 260836 TCDEP4 Hurricane Narda Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025 200 AM PDT Fri Sep 26 2025 Narda has changed little in organization overnight. A 0213 UTC GMI microwave pass and a coincident SAR RCM-3 NRCS pass revealed a symmetric eye about 15 n mi wide embedded within the deep convection, with intermittent bursts producing cloud tops to near -90 C near and south of the low-level circulation center. A 0520 UTC METOP-B ASCAT pass depicted a wind field structure similar to that shown in recent passes over the past 24 h. The latest subjective Dvorak Current Intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB are both 4.5/77 kt, while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS are in the 58–72 kt range. Based on these data and the satellite presentation, the initial intensity is held at 80 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is toward the west at 275/13 kt, steered by a subtropical ridge to its north. This motion is expected to continue through early Saturday. After that time, Narda should begin to slow down as it turns west-northwestward, then northwestward, and eventually north-northeastward through the weekend as a weakness develops in the ridge in response to an upper-level low over California. The forecast track is very similar to the previous NHC advisory and lies close to the multi-model consensus aids. Some slight strengthening can't be ruled out through the day today while the moderate shear potentially eases and the system remains over warm sea surface temperatures and within a moist mid- to upper-level environment. Over the weekend, Narda will be moving over cooler waters and into an increasingly drier mid-level environment, which should induce a weakening trend. The system is forecast to fall below hurricane strength by early Sunday and become a post-tropical remnant low by day 4. The official intensity forecast is close to the previous one and remains near the higher end of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 16.4N 120.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 16.8N 122.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 17.3N 124.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 17.9N 126.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 18.8N 127.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 28/1800Z 20.0N 127.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 20.9N 127.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 21.8N 126.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0600Z 22.9N 125.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
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