Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 25 2025
000 WTPZ44 KNHC 260235 TCDEP4 Hurricane Narda Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 25 2025 Narda is holding steady this evening despite moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear of about 15-20 kt. Satellite imagery shows a well-defined central dense overcast (CDO) with cloud tops to near -90 C and a convective band wrapping into the center from the south. The latest subjective Dvorak Current Intensity estimates are 5.0/90 kt from SAB and 4.5/77 kt from TAFB, while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS range between 65 and 75 kt. Based on a blend of these data and the satellite presentation, the initial intensity is held at 80 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is toward the west near 280/14 kt, steered by a subtropical ridge to its north. This forward speed is expected to hold steady through early Saturday. After that time, Narda should begin to slow down as it turns west-northwestward, then northwestward, and eventually north-northeastward through the weekend as a weakness develops in the ridge in response to an upper-level low over California. Beyond 48 h, the forecast track has been nudged slightly to the left of the previous advisory and lies close to the multi-model consensus aids. Some slight strengthening is still possible during the next 12–24 h while the shear remains moderate and the system stays over warm sea surface temperatures in a moist mid- to upper-level environment. By 36–48 h, Narda will be moving over cooler waters and into an increasingly drier mid-level environment with strengthening southwesterly shear, which should induce a weakening trend. The system is forecast to fall below hurricane strength by early Sunday and become a post-tropical remnant low by day 5. The official intensity forecast is close to the previous one and remains near the higher end of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 16.4N 119.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 16.8N 121.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 17.3N 123.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 17.8N 125.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 18.5N 126.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 28/1200Z 19.6N 127.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 20.6N 127.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 21.9N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 01/0000Z 23.1N 126.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
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