Hurricane Milton Forecast Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 101443
TCDAT4

Hurricane Milton Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Milton is quickly taking on extratropical characteristics, with
convection more closely aligned along a warm frontal boundary to
the northeast than the center itself.  Due to the structure
evolution, it is likely that the strongest winds are located to the
northwest of the center.  The intensity is lowered to 70 kt, based
on continuity from the previous forecast.  Scatterometer passes are
expected in a few hours and should allow us to get a better handle
on Milton's intensity and structure.

The hurricane has turned east-northeastward (065/17 kt).  Milton is
located within the base of a deep-layer trough located over the
western Atlantic, and this feature should steer the storm eastward
later today, with that motion continuing for the next 3 days.  The
NHC forecast is a little faster than the previous prediction to
follow the recent trends in the model guidance.

Global model fields show low-level thickness contours packing
closer together on the northwest side through the day, and it is
therefore likely that Milton will complete extratropical transition
by this afternoon or evening.  Milton will still be a powerful
post-tropical cyclone, but its maximum winds are expected to
gradually decrease during the next few days.  The post-tropical low
is expected to become diffuse and will likely dissipate in about 4
days.


Key Messages:

1. A Storm Surge Warning remains in effect for portions of the east
coast of Florida and southern coast of Georgia.  Storm surge
inundation will continue in these areas through this afternoon.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue along portions of the
southeast U.S. coast through this afternoon and over the extreme
northwestern Bahamas through this evening.

3. In the wake of heavy rainfall from Milton, the risk of
considerable urban flooding will linger through this afternoon
across east central Florida.  Moderate to major river flooding is
ongoing and forecast throughout central Florida.

4. Use caution after the storm as deadly hazards remain including
downed power lines and flooded areas.  Ensure generators are
properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from
doors, windows, and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning.
If you are cleaning up storm damage, be careful when using
chainsaws and power tools, and drink plenty of water to avoid heat
exhaustion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/1500Z 29.1N  78.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  11/0000Z 29.6N  75.3W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  11/1200Z 29.9N  70.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  12/0000Z 30.0N  64.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  12/1200Z 29.9N  60.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  13/0000Z 30.4N  57.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  13/1200Z 31.4N  53.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg