Hurricane Milton Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT44 KNHC 100842
TCDAT4

Hurricane Milton Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
500 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Milton moved quickly across central Florida overnight, producing
significant flooding and damaging winds near its path.  The center
of the hurricane is now exiting the state near Cape Canaveral, and
the worst conditions have shifted to east-central and northeastern
Florida.  The initial intensity is set to 75 kt based on Doppler
radar velocity data and surface observations, with the strongest
winds likely occurring just offshore of east-central Florida.

Milton is expected to remain a hurricane a little longer, but the
models are in good agreement that it will develop frontal
characteristics by tonight, and therefore, the official forecast
shows the system becoming extratropical in 24 hours.  The
extratropical low is expected to gradually weaken and dissipate in
about 4 days.  The NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement with
the GFS model, which typically performs better than the standard
hurricane models for transitioning systems.

The hurricane is moving quickly northeastward between a trough just
to its west and a ridge near the Greater Antilles.  A turn to the
east is expected to occur soon as the flow becomes more zonal,
taking the system to the north of the Bahamas later today and south
of Bermuda on Saturday.  The NHC track forecast is a little faster
than the previous one to be in better agreement with the latest
models.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along the
coast from east-central Florida northward to southern Georgia,
where a Storm Surge Warning remains in effect.

2. Damaging hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, will
continue for a few more hours in east-central and northeastern
Florida. Residents are urged to remain in an interior room and away
from windows.

3. Heavy rainfall across the central to northern Florida Peninsula
through this morning continues to bring the risk of considerable
flash and urban flooding along with moderate to major river
flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding
combine to increase the overall flood threat.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0900Z 28.5N  80.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  10/1800Z 29.3N  78.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  11/0600Z 29.6N  74.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  11/1800Z 29.6N  70.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  12/0600Z 29.7N  67.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  12/1800Z 29.9N  63.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  13/0600Z 30.6N  60.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi