000 WTPZ32 KNHC 040851 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 200 AM MST Thu Sep 04 2025 ...LORENA STARTING TO WEAKEN... ...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SOUTHWESTERN SONORA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.0N 113.7W ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM WNW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West Coast of Baja California Sur from Santa Fe to Punta Eugenia A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East Coast of the Baja California peninsula from Santa Rosalia to Bahia de los Angeles A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere on the Baja California peninsula and in northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Lorena. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 113.7 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through this morning. A slow northward or north-northeastward motion is expected to begin this afternoon and continue into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to move parallel to the west coast of the Baja California peninsula today and approach the coast of Baja California Sur tonight through Friday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorena is expected to quickly weaken for the next couple of days, and it is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm later today. Lorena is likely to degenerate into a remnant low near or over the Baja California peninsula by early Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. RAINFALL: Bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact Baja California Sur and Sonora Mexico through Friday. Additional rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum storm total amounts of 15 inches, are possible across portions of Baja California Sur, far southeast Baja California and southwestern Sonora into Friday. This will bring the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. Elsewhere across Mexico, 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated totals up to 6 inches, are expected across the remainder of Sonora and northern Sinaloa. These amounts will lead to isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding. Across the southwestern United States, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with isolated totals up to 5 inches, are expected across portions of Arizona and New Mexico through Saturday, bringing the potential for isolated to scattered flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Lorena, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the warning area in Baja California Sur today through Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the east coast of the Baja California peninsula late Friday into Friday night. STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding from storm surge is likely along the coast of Baja California Sur near and to the right of where Lorena makes landfall. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will continue affecting portions of the south and west coasts of Baja California Sur through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM MST. Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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