274 WTPZ32 KNHC 040544 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 1100 PM MST Wed Sep 03 2025 ...LORENA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN QUICKLY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... ...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SOUTHWESTERN SONORA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM MST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.7N 113.6W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM WNW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for the west coast of Baja California Sur from Todos Santos northward to Santa Fe. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West Coast of Baja California Sur from Santa Fe to Punta Eugenia A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East Coast of the Baja California peninsula from Santa Rosalia to Bahia de los Angeles A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere on the Baja California peninsula and in northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Lorena. Additional watches or warnings may be required tonight or on Thursday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM MST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 113.6 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early Thursday. A slow northward or north-northeastward motion is expected to begin on Thursday and continue into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to move parallel to the west coast of the Baja California peninsula through Thursday, approach the coast of Baja California Sur Thursday night, and move inland over the Baja California peninsula on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorena is expected to begin weakening quickly and become a tropical storm on Thursday. Lorena is likely to degenerate into a remnant low near or over the Baja California peninsula by early Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. RAINFALL: Bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact Baja California Sur and move into southwestern Sonora by Thursday, with this rainfall potentially persisting through Friday. Additional rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum storm total amounts of 15 inches, are possible across portions of Baja California Sur, far southeast Baja California and southwestern Sonora into Friday. This will bring the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. Farther northeast, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with localized totals up to 5 inches, are expected from portions of the Mexican state of Sinaloa north and northeast into portions of southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico through Saturday, bringing the potential for isolated to scattered flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Lorena, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area beginning tonight and will spread northward within the warning area in Baja California Sur through Thursday and into Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the east coast of the Baja California peninsula late Friday into Friday night. STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding from storm surge is likely along the coast of Baja California Sur near and to the right of where Lorena makes landfall. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will continue affecting portions of the south and west coasts of Baja California Sur through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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