Hurricane Kristy Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 250835
TCDEP2

Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122024
200 AM PDT Fri Oct 25 2024

Kristy is starting to lose organization due to increasing shear, 
with the eye becoming ragged and cloud-filled and the surrounding 
convection becoming less symmetric.  Satellite intensity estimates 
have been decreasing and now generally range from 115-140 kt.  
Based on the the decreasing trend, the initial intensity is reduced 
to a possibly generous 130 kt.

Kristy is now moving west-northwestward with the initial motion is 
295/12 kt. During the next 2-3 days, the cyclone should move 
northwestward to north-northwestward as it goes around the 
southwest side of a mid- to upper-level ridge centered near Baja 
California.  Some decrease in the forward speed is expected by the 
end of the forecast period as the cyclone shears apart, with the 
low-level center moving slowly westward between 60-72 h.  The 
models have again trended a little to the north, especially from 
24-48 h.  Thus, this part of the forecast track has also been 
nudged northward.  The remnants of Kristy should move southwestward 
in the low-level wind flow.

Vertical shear over the hurricane is going to increase from 
light-to-moderate this morning to strong by 24 h.  In addition, the 
forecast track takes the system over steadily decreasing sea 
surface temperatures.  Based on this, gradual weakening is expected 
for the next 12 h or so, followed by rapid weakening for the 
remainder of the cyclone's life. Kristy is expected to drop below 
hurricane strength by 48 h, and it is expected to degenerate to a 
remnant low pressure area by 72 h.  The global models forecast the 
low to weaken to a trough by 96 h, and the intensity forecast 
follows that in showing dissipation by that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0900Z 15.2N 123.9W  130 KT 150 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 16.2N 125.4W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  26/0600Z 17.9N 127.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  26/1800Z 19.9N 128.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  27/0600Z 21.7N 129.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  27/1800Z 22.8N 130.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  28/0600Z 23.0N 131.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven