Hurricane Kristy Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 241432
TCDEP2

Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122024
800 AM PDT Thu Oct 24 2024

Kristy's satellite presentation has improved this morning as the eye
has reappeared on infrared and visible imagery, with deep convection
wrapping around the center. A recent AMSR2 microwave pass depicted
that the system has completed an eyewall replacement cycle, with an
inner core becoming re-established and contracting towards the
center. Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimate data-T values
have increased since the previous advisory with T6.5 from both
TAFB and SAB. Given these intensity estimates and recent satellite
images, the intensity is set to 130 kt for this advisory.

The hurricane is moving westward at an estimated motion of 270/15
kt, being steered by a ridge located over the northeastern Pacific.
Kristy will gradually round the southwestern portion of the ridge
over the next day or so, with a turn to the northwest then
north-northwest continuing through the weekend between the flow of
the aforementioned ridge and a trough to the west. By the end of the
weekend, Kristy is forecast to rapidly weaken with the remnants
turning west-southwestward within the low-level steering flow. The
NHC forecast was nudged slightly to the right of the previous
forecast, closer to the simple consensus aids.

Kristy is forecast to remain within a favorable environment for the
next 24 hours or so, with warm sea surface temperatures and light
vertical wind shear. The intensity forecast calls for some slight
re-intensification during this time, although recent microwave
imagery depicts that another eyewall replacement cycle could occur,
which would cause some intensity fluctuations in the short term.
Thereafter, the environment quickly becomes hostile with strong wind
shear, drier air and cooler sea surface temperatures along the
forecast track of Kristy. Guidance is in fairly good agreement that
rapid weakening should occur through the end of the forecast period.
Model simulated satellite imagery depicts that Kristy will begin to
lose convection and become a post-tropical remnant low around 72 h,
and depicts the system opening into a trough by 120 h. The NHC
intensity forecast follows these trends, showing rapid weakening,
and now has the remnant low status at 72h, and dissipation at 120 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 14.1N 120.3W  130 KT 150 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 14.4N 122.3W  135 KT 155 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 15.3N 124.8W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 16.8N 126.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 18.6N 128.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  27/0000Z 20.6N 130.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  27/1200Z 22.3N 131.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  28/1200Z 21.5N 133.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly/B.Adams