Hurricane Kristy Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 240231
TCDEP2

Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122024
800 PM PDT Wed Oct 23 2024

After rapidly intensifying throughout the day, Kristy's impressive 
strengthening trend appears to have paused.  The very powerful major 
hurricane remains quite compact and symmetric with a ring of intense 
deep convection surrounding its tiny eye.  The initial wind speed is 
held at 135 kt based on a blend of the latest satellite intensity 
estimates that range between 125 and 140 kt.  However, it is 
possible that Kristy is a little stronger as the maximum wind speed 
of compact hurricanes are sometimes underestimated.  There are also 
signs that Kristy could be beginning an eyewall replacement cycle, 
which is common in strong hurricanes in near ideal environmental 
conditions.

Kristy continues to move swiftly westward at 17 kt on the south side 
of a strong ridge centered near Baja California.   A turn to the 
west-northwest with some decrease in forward speed is expected 
during the next day or two as the hurricane moves along the 
southwestern periphery of the ridge.  A sharper turn to the 
northwest or north-northwest is expected Friday night and continuing 
through the weekend when the hurricane moves in the flow between the 
ridge and a large-scale trough.  The NHC track forecast is nudged to 
the north of the previous one to come into better agreement with the 
latest models.

The major hurricane is expected to remain in generally conducive 
environmental conditions for about another day, so the intensity 
changes will be largely governed by internal dynamics during that 
time.  However, steady to rapid weakening should begin by early 
Friday when Kristy moves into an environment of progressively 
stronger shear, cooler waters, and notably drier air.  The models 
are in fairly good agreement, and this forecast is close to the 
latest HCCA guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 14.2N 117.2W  135 KT 155 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 14.2N 119.6W  135 KT 155 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 14.6N 122.3W  130 KT 150 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 15.5N 124.9W  125 KT 145 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 16.9N 127.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
 60H  26/1200Z 18.7N 129.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  27/0000Z 20.5N 130.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  28/0000Z 21.7N 132.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  29/0000Z 20.5N 135.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi