Hurricane Kristy Forecast Discussion

084 
WTPZ42 KNHC 261434
TCDEP2

Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122024
800 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024

Kristy is rapidly weakening.  Satellite images show the center of
the hurricane on the southern edge of the central dense overcast,
with the southern part of the circulation exposed due to strong
shear. The current intensity is set to 65 kt, consistent with
the latest estimates.  Further rapid weakening is anticipated due
to a continuation of strong shear and Kristy moving over cooler
waters.  The new intensity forecast is reduced from the previous
one, similar to the intensity consensus aids.  Kristy should
become post-tropical without any organized convection in about 24 h.

The hurricane continues to move northwestward at about 12 kt
this morning.  This general motion is expected until late today
when the mid-level circulation of the cyclone becomes decoupled
with the low-level center.  Kristy should then turn westward on
Sunday and southwestward late that day as a remnant low.  Very
little change was made to the previous forecast, which remains
steady in showing this course.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/1500Z 19.7N 128.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 21.1N 129.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 22.3N 130.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  28/0000Z 22.5N 131.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  28/1200Z 21.9N 132.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake