Hurricane Kristy Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 260837
TCDEP2

Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122024
200 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024

Kristy continues to weaken this morning. While the hurricane is 
still producing an area of fairly deep convection, this convection 
is becoming stretched poleward as south-southwesterly vertical wind 
shear steadily increases over the tropical cyclone. Subjective 
Dvorak estimates are constrained from decreasing faster this 
morning, but taking a blend of subjective and objective intensity 
estimates yields an intensity of 85 kt for this advisory. The shear 
diagnosed by SHIPS guidance and UW-CIMSS analysis is now up to 30 
kt, and is forecast to increase above 40 kt in 24 h. In addition, 
Kristy is now crossing the 26 C isotherm and heading for even cooler 
ocean waters. This combination should continue to result in rapid 
weakening, with the hurricane likely to vertically decouple later 
today. The NHC intensity forecast continues to blend the previous 
forecast with the latest consensus aids, showing Kristy weakening 
below hurricane intensity by this evening. Remnant low status is 
likely not far behind on Sunday as the cyclone ceases to produce 
organized deep convection, as depicted by both global and 
regional-hurricane models. The remnant low low should finally open 
up into a trough on Monday.

The hurricane has maintained a northwestward motion this morning at 
320/13 kt. While the prominent subtropical mid-level ridge over Baja 
California steering Kristy should remain in place, the tropical 
cyclone's vertically deep vortex will likely decouple over the next 
24 h. This decoupling will result in the mid-level vortex leaving 
behind Kristy's surface circulation, which should quickly slow down 
and turn westward as it becomes primarily influenced by strong 
low-level ridging to its north. The track guidance continues to be 
in relative good agreement with the prior forecast track, and only 
minor adjustments were made from the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0900Z 18.7N 127.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 20.0N 128.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  27/0600Z 21.8N 129.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  27/1800Z 22.6N 130.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  28/0600Z 22.4N 131.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin