Hurricane Kristy Forecast Discussion

275 
WTPZ42 KNHC 260233
TCDEP2

Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122024
800 PM PDT Fri Oct 25 2024

Kristy's deepest convection is being displaced to the north of the 
center due to strong southerly shear, diagnosed at 30 kt by 
UW-CIMSS, although some convective elements are still trying to  
form within the southern eyewall.  Subjective Dvorak CI numbers and 
objective satellite estimates now range between 80-100 kt, and 
Kristy's intensity is therefore set at a blend of 90 kt.  Rapid 
weakening is forecast to continue as the hurricane encounters even 
stronger shear--and cooler sea surface temperatures--over the next 
couple of days.  The NHC intensity forecast closely follows previous 
official forecast trends and the latest consensus aids.  
Model-simulated satellite data indicate that Kristy should lose its 
deep convection by Sunday, and the cyclone is therefore expected to 
degenerate into a remnant low by 48 hours.  The low is forecast to 
open up into a trough on Monday.

Kristy is moving northwestward (310/13 kt), steered by a strong 
mid-level ridge centered over the Baja California peninsula.  The 
ridge should keep Kristy on a northwestward or north-northwestward 
trajectory for the next 36 hours, but once the cyclone weakens to a 
remnant low, it is expected to turn westward and slow down 
considerably when it runs into a low-level ridge to the north.    
The track models are in good agreement on this scenario, and no 
significant track changes were made from the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0300Z 17.6N 126.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  26/1200Z 18.9N 128.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  27/0000Z 20.9N 129.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  27/1200Z 22.4N 130.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  28/0000Z 22.7N 130.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  28/1200Z 22.4N 131.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg