Hurricane Kristy Forecast Advisory

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 251437
TCMEP2

HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122024
1500 UTC FRI OCT 25 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 124.8W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  952 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  15SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  70SE  60SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 124.8W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 124.3W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.0N 126.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  15SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.8N 127.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.8N 128.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.4N 129.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  30SE  40SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 23.0N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 22.4N 131.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 124.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY