Hurricane Kirk Forecast Advisory

000
WTNT22 KNHC 020843
TCMAT2

HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122024
0900 UTC WED OCT 02 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N  42.1W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT.......170NE 170SE  70SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE  90SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N  42.1W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  41.7W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.4N  43.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  15SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE  80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.5N  44.6W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  20SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE  80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.7N  46.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE  90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.9N  47.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE  25SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.4N  49.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  50SW  80NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 25.3N  50.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 110SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 30.8N  50.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...130NE 110SE  70SW 100NW.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 140SW 170NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 37.4N  44.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW  90NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 200SW 180NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N  42.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN