700 WTPA44 PHFO 080848 TCDCP4 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 33 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112025 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM HST Sun Sep 07 2025 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Kiko this evening measured a minimum central pressure of 982 mb and a maximum flight-level wind of 96 kt. These data indicate that Kiko has continued to weaken, with satellite imagery showing the low-level center near the southwestern edge of the deep convection in response to about 25 to 30 kt of southwesterly shear. Based on a blend of the aircraft data, satellite trends, and the various intensity estimates, the initial intensity is set at a possibly generous 85 kt. The initial motion is northwestward, or 305/12 kt, with Kiko remaining on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. This steering pattern should keep the cyclone on a general west-northwestward to northwestward trajectory through the next couple of days. Kiko is expected to pass north of the Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the most reliable track models remain in good agreement on this scenario. The official forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous cycle and remains close to the consensus aids. Based on the new forecast and accounting for typical errors, there is currently less than a 10 percent chance of tropical-storm-force winds occurring at any location on the Hawaiian Islands, and tropical storm watches are not required or expected at this time. Kiko is expected to continue weakening at an accelerated rate during the next 24 hours as southwesterly shear strengthens to 30–35 kt while the cyclone remains over marginal sea surface temperatures. Under these increasingly hostile conditions, the system should weaken to tropical storm strength by late Monday. If Kiko is able to withstand the peak shear period, some moderation in the weakening rate is possible later in the forecast as it moves over slightly warmer waters near 27 C and vertical wind shear decreases. The current intensity forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Kiko is forecast to pass north of the Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday. While the risk of direct impacts on the islands appears to be decreasing, interests there should continue to monitor Kiko's progress and the latest forecast. 2. Swells generated by Kiko are expected to gradually build and are forecast to peak along east-facing exposures of the Hawaiian Islands late Monday through midweek, potentially producing life-threatening surf and rip currents. Listen for later advisories and possible warnings from the National Weather Service in Honolulu, Hawaii. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 19.6N 147.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 20.5N 149.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 21.7N 151.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 22.9N 154.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 23.9N 156.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 10/1800Z 24.7N 159.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 25.3N 161.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 26.8N 165.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 13/0600Z 28.8N 168.3W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
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