000 WTPA44 PHFO 080251 TCDCP4 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 32 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112025 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM HST Sun Sep 07 2025 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Kiko this afternoon measured a minimum central pressure of 974 mb and a maximum flight-level wind of 103 kt. The satellite presentation has held fairly steady since, though some deterioration of the southwest quadrant has been noted as southwesterly shear of around 20 kt has started to affect the cyclone. Recent aircraft fixes also suggest a slight northeastward tilt of the vortex in response to the shear. Subjective Dvorak estimates ranged from T4.5/77 kt at SAB and JTWC to T5.0/90 kt at HFO, while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS were between 77 and 88 kt. Based on a blend of these data and the modest satellite changes, the initial intensity has been lowered to 90 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is northwestward, or 305/12 kt, with Kiko remaining on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. Based on this steering pattern, Kiko is expected to pass north of the Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the most reliable track models remain in good agreement on this scenario. The official forecast is nearly identical to the previous NHC forecast and remains close to the consensus aids. Given the new forecast and accounting for typical errors, there is currently less than a 10 percent chance of tropical-storm-force winds occurring at any location in the Hawaiian Islands, and tropical storm watches are not required or expected at this time. Cooler waters and increasing shear supports additional weakening during the next 12–24 hours, with Kiko likely to fall below hurricane strength by late Monday or Monday night. The shear is forecast to peak near 30–35 kt between 24 and 48 hours, which should accelerate the weakening trend. If Kiko is able to withstand that period, some moderation in the weakening rate is possible later in the forecast as the cyclone moves over slightly warmer waters near 27 C while also accompanied by a decrease in vertical wind shear. The current intensity forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Kiko is forecast to pass north of the Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday. While the risk of direct impacts on the islands appears to be decreasing, interests there should continue to monitor Kiko's progress and the latest forecast. 2. Swells generated by Kiko are expected to gradually build and are forecast to peak along east-facing exposures of the Hawaiian Islands late Monday through midweek, potentially producing life-threatening surf and rip currents. Listen for later advisories and possible warnings from the National Weather Service in Honolulu, Hawaii. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 18.9N 146.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 19.7N 148.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 20.9N 150.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 22.1N 152.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 23.3N 155.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 24.2N 158.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 25.2N 160.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 27.0N 165.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 28.6N 168.2W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
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