539 WTPA44 PHFO 061443 TCDCP4 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 26 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112025 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Sat Sep 06 2025 Kiko is maintaining a well-defined eye on satellite imagery, but the convection is becoming eroded over the northern semicircle of the system. Also, the cloud tops have warmed somewhat since last night. The advisory intensity is set at 115 kt, in general agreement with Dvorak Current Intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB and close to the objective estimates from UW/CIMSS. Scatterometer data overnight showed that the system remains rather small, with tropical-storm force winds over a diameter of 100 n mi or less. The hurricane continues on its west-northwestward trek with an initial motion estimate of 290/10 kt. Kiko is moving on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge. A mid- to upper-level trough near Hawaii is eroding the ridge's western periphery, so a a nearly northwestward motion is likely around 72 hours. Later in the forecast period, a more westward track is likely as the weakening cyclone becomes more responsive to the lower-level steering flow. The official forecast track is just slightly north of the previous official prediction, with some of the consensus track prediction aids even farther north of the latest official track. This would keep the center of Kiko north of the main Hawaiian Islands. However there is still some uncertainty in forecasts at 3 days and beyond. Kiko is traversing SSTs near 26 deg C and should continue to pass over marginally warm ocean waters during the next few days. However, the trough near Hawaii is likely to impart increasingly strong south-southwesterly vertical wind shear over the cyclone for the next several days. The official intensity forecast shows gradual weakening, and is generally above the consensus model guidance. Simulated satellite imagery from the global models shows the deep convection becoming disorganized while the system passes near the Hawaiian Islands, so the official intensity forecast at 3-5 days could be generous. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Kiko later today to provide a better look at Kiko's intensity and structure. Key Messages: 1. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the early to middle portion of next week. Impacts from rain and wind are possible over portions of the Islands, but it is still too soon to determine the exact location or magnitude of these potential impacts, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this storm. 2. Swells generated by Kiko are expected to begin reaching the Big Island and Maui by Sunday. These swells will gradually build and are forecast to peak along east-facing exposures of the Hawaiian Islands late Monday through midweek, potentially producing life-threatening surf and rip currents. Listen for later advisories and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 15.5N 140.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 16.1N 142.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 17.0N 143.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 18.0N 145.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 19.1N 147.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 09/0000Z 20.4N 150.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 21.8N 152.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 24.1N 157.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 25.5N 162.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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