000 WTPZ41 KNHC 052044 TCDEP1 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM HST Fri Sep 05 2025 The satellite presentation of Kiko has shown significant improvement since the last advisory, with the eye clearing out and its coldest cloud tops more fully encircling it. The most recent subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were T6.0/115 kt and T5.5/102 kt. Objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have been increasing, with the latest ADT estimate up to to 115 knots. Considering the continuing improvement since the time of the 1800 UTC fixes, the intensity has been set at 115 kts, which could be conservative as the eye continues to clear out. Kiko continues to move to the west-northwest, or 290 degrees, at 9 kt. The western extent of a subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone is eroding due to a developing upper-level low north of Hawaii. This general west-northwestward motion along with a gradual increase in forward speed is forecast into early next week, as Kiko moves along the southwest periphery of this subtropical ridge and towards the upper-level low to the north and northwest of the Hawaiian Islands. The track forecast has shifted northward due to the slightly more northward initial motion, and poleward shift in the track guidance. Based on the forecast track Kiko is expected to cross 140W into the central Pacific Ocean overnight into Saturday morning. The track forecast remains close to the HCCA consensus aid. By the end of the forecast track, Kiko may turn more westward as it becomes increasingly steered by the low-level flow. The hurricane will remain over warm waters of 27–28C for the next 12 hours, while influenced by light northeasterly vertical wind shear embedded in a drier than normal mid-level environment. These environmental factors should keep Kiko a smaller than average sized storm as the dry air prevents more prominent outer rain bands from forming. Conditions still appear favorable for additional intensification, so the latest intensity and given the current improving structure, more intensification is shown than before, well above all of the available guidance. This forecast also fits in with the possibility for Kiko developing annular structure which could keep it stronger than the forecast intensity guidance. Thereafter, Kiko will move over cooler waters and an even drier mid-level environment. After 48 hours, west-southwesterly vertical wind shear increases steadily, exceeding 30 kt by Wednesday. This shear may help import the nearby environmental dry air into Kiko's small core. Thus, rapid weakening of the tropical cyclone is forecast as Kiko passes to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands by the end of the forecast. After the initial bump in short-term intensity, this forecast trends back to the middle of the consensus envelope early next week, and then trends lower by the end of the forecast period. Key Messages: 1. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the early to the middle portion of next week. Impacts from rain and wind remain a possibility, but it is too soon to determine the exact location or magnitude of these impacts, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this storm. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 14.5N 137.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 14.9N 139.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 15.6N 141.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 16.3N 143.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 17.2N 145.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 08/0600Z 18.2N 147.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 19.4N 149.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 21.7N 153.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 23.7N 158.2W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Roth/Papin
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