000 WTPZ32 KNHC 070537 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kay Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 1200 AM MDT Wed Sep 07 2022 ...KAY EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 111.8W ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Cortes to Punta Eugenia A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Abreojos southward to Cabo San Lucas * Cabo San Lucas northward to Santa Rosalia A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Santa Rosalia to Bahia De Los Angeles * North of Punta Eugenia to San Jose De Las Palomas A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Tropical storm and hurricane warnings are likely to be required for portions of the watch area later this morning. Interests north of the watch area on the Baja California peninsula and along the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico should closely monitor the progress of Kay as additional tropical storm watches could be required this morning. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kay was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 111.8 West. Kay is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is expected today, and this motion should continue into Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Kay is expected to pass to the west of the southern Baja California peninsula today, and be near the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Kay could become a major hurricane during that time. Weakening is forecast to begin by Thursday, but Kay is forecast to remain a strong hurricane when it passes near the Baja California peninsula. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Kay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area beginning Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area beginning this morning and are forecast to spread northward tonight and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area on Thursday. STORM SURGE: A storm surge could produce coastal flooding near where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or east of the center if Kay makes landfall. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce rainfall totals of... Baja California Peninsula: 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15 inches Northwest Mainland Mexico: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 6 inches Southernmost California: 1 to 3 inches with maxima of 5 inches through Saturday morning These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding across the above areas, including landslides across mountainous areas of Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. Large swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California peninsula coast and into the Gulf of California during the next few days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown