ZCZC MIATCPEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Kay Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 08 2022 ...CENTER OF KAY GETTING CLOSE TO THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.8N 113.8W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM NW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SSE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for east coast of the Baja California peninsula from La Paz southward to Cabo San Lucas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * North of Punta Abreojos to San Jose De Las Palomas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Cortes to Punta Abreojos A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Abreojos southward to Cabo San Lucas * San Jose De Las Palomas to the U.S./Mexico border * North of la Paz northward along the entire east coast of the Baja California peninsula and then southward to Guaymas in mainland Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 18 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in southern California should monitor the progress of Kay and consult products from your local weather office. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kay was located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 113.8 West. Kay is moving toward the north-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion should continue through Friday. A slower northwestward to west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin by late Friday and continue into Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Kay is expected move over or near the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula later today and tonight, and near the northwest coast of the Baja California peninsula on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected during the next couple of days. However, Kay is expected to remain a large hurricane when it passes over or near the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula today. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Kay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area beginning during the next several hours, and are possible within the Hurricane Watch area today. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over the Tropical Storm Warning area and are forecast to spread northward through Friday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal flooding near where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or east of the center if Kay makes landfall along the western Baja peninsula of Mexico. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Saturday… Baja California Peninsula: 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15 inches Northwest Mainland Mexico: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 6 inches Southernmost California: 2 to 4 inches with maxima of 6 inches Southwest Arizona: 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 3 inches These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides possible across mountainous areas of Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern California during the next couple of days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN