630 WTPZ32 KNHC 072353 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kay Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 600 PM MDT Wed Sep 07 2022 ...KAY BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.6N 113.0W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SSE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * North of Punta Abreojos to San Jose De Las Palomas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Cortes to Punta Abreojos A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Abreojos southward to Cabo San Lucas * San Jose De Las Palomas to Cabo San Quintin * Cabo San Lucas northward along the entire east of Baja and then southward to Guaymas in mainland Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo San Quintin to U.S./Mexico border A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in southern California should monitor the progress of Kay and consult products from your local weather office. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kay was located near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 113.0 West. Kay is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion should continue into Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Kay is expected to pass to the west of the southern Baja California peninsula this evening and tonight, and be near the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is expected during the next couple of days. However, Kay is expected to remain a large hurricane when it passes near the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). An automated observing station at Puerto Cortes, on the west coast of the Baja California peninsula, reported a sustained wind of 33 mph (54 km/h) and a gust to 41 mph (67 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Kay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area beginning on Thursday, and are possible within the Hurricane Watch area Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are spreading over the Tropical Storm Warning area and are forecast to spread northward through Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area on Friday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal flooding near where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or east of the center if Kay makes landfall along the western Baja peninsula of Mexico. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Saturday: Baja California Peninsula: 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15 inches Northwest Mainland Mexico: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 6 inches Southernmost California: 2 to 4 inches with maxima of 6 inches Southwest Arizona: 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 4 inches These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides possible across mountainous areas of Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern California during the next few days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch