000 WTPZ42 KNHC 072043 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kay Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 07 2022 After getting better organized this morning, the window for Kay to intensify may be closing as the center has reached an area where the sea surface temperatures have decreased to 26C. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft showed that the central pressure was near 971 mb, but that the maximum 700-mb flight level winds were only 82 kt, with lower surface winds estimates from the SFMR. The aircraft also reported a decay of the eyewall structure during the mission, which is matched by a decay in the eye and eyewall structure seen in satellite imagery. The initial intensity is reduced to 85 kt, and this could be a bit generous. The forecast track takes the center over progressively cooler water during the next several days, and continued steady weakening is expected. However, the weakening may be slower than normal since part of the large circulation will be over the warm Gulf of California. Kay is still forecast to be a hurricane when it passes near or over the western portion of the Baja California Peninsula in 24-36 h. After that, the cyclone should weaken below hurricane strength by 48 h and below tropical storm strength after 72 h. The new intensity forecast shows lower intensities than the previous forecast and lies close to the intensity consensus models. The initial motion is north-northwestward or 340/11 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north and northeast of the hurricane should continue to steer Kay generally north-northwestward for the next 48 h or so, taking the core of Kay very near or over the west-central Baja California peninsula on Thursday and Friday. After that, the weakening and increasingly shallow Kay is forecast to turn more westward, and eventually southward, away from land as it becomes steered by the flow on the south and east side of a low-level ridge over the northeastern Pacific. There has been little change in the track guidance since the previous advisory, and the new official forecast track has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast. Kay is a very large tropical cyclone. It is producing an extensive area of high seas, with swells affecting portions of southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula. Although Kay is likely to weaken before it makes landfall or moves very close to the west-central coast of the Baja peninsula, it is forecast to remain a large and dangerous hurricane through that time. In addition, high wind, surf, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center so users should not focus on the exact forecast track. KEY MESSAGES: 1. As the center of Kay passes just offshore, heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, including landslides, across the Baja California peninsula and portions of mainland northwestern Mexico through Saturday morning. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding is possible across Southern California, especially in and near the peninsular ranges, and Southwest Arizona, Friday night into Saturday. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the west-central Baja California coast on Thursday and Thursday night, and a hurricane warning is in effect for that area. 3. Tropical storm conditions are beginning over portions of the Baja California peninsula, and these conditions are expected to spread northward during the next day or so, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 22.0N 113.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 23.8N 113.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 26.1N 114.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 28.2N 115.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 29.8N 116.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 10/0600Z 30.8N 118.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 31.2N 119.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 31.0N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/1800Z 29.0N 121.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven