Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Kay Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ42 KNHC 062045
TCDEP2

Hurricane Kay Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122022
300 PM MDT Tue Sep 06 2022

Kay continues to be relatively steady in strength.  The Air 
Force Hurricane Hunters so far have found peak flight-level winds 
of 75 kt, and the initial intensity is held at 75 kt pending 
the completion of the reconnaissance mission.  The minimum pressure 
is estimated to be 978 mb based on the aircraft data.  The center 
of Kay is currently over Socorro Island, and the island is about to 
experience strong winds on the system's east side.  The aircraft 
data and a recent ASCAT-B pass indicate that Kay is a large 
hurricane, with its tropical-storm- force winds extending outward 
about 200 miles from the center.  Kay is also producing a large area 
of high seas, with swells currently affecting portions of 
southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula.

Kay is moving northwestward and it continues moving along the 
previous forecast track. A northwest to north-northwest 
motion is expected during the next few days, which will likely 
bring the core of Kay very near the west-central Baja California 
coast on Thursday and Friday. After that time, a turn to the left 
is predicted when the system is steered by a low- to mid-level 
ridge over the western United States.  The GFS has shifted a bit to 
the right this cycle, but the other models have generally held 
steady.  Little change was made to the previous NHC track forecast 
and this one lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

The hurricane is still feeling some effects from moderate northerly
vertical wind shear, but the models suggest that the shear should
decrease during the next day or so.  The anticipated more conducive
upper-level wind pattern combined with warm SSTs and a moist
environment should allow Kay to strengthen during the next 24-36 
hours, and it could become a major hurricane during that time.  
Thereafter, sharply cooler SSTs and drier air should end the 
opportunity for strengthening and induce steady weakening.  Kay is 
expected to become a post-tropical cyclone in 4 to 5 days when it 
is forecast to be over quite cool SSTs of 21-22 C.  The NHC 
intensity forecast is near or a little above the high end of the 
guidance, especially during the first 36-48 hours.

Although Kay is likely to weaken before it makes its closest
approach to the west-central coast of the Baja peninsula, it is
forecast to remain a large and dangerous hurricane through that 
time.  In addition, high wind, surf, and rainfall impacts will 
extend far from the center so users should not focus on the exact 
forecast track. 

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Kay could lead to flash flooding, including
landslides, across portions of the Baja California peninsula 
through Friday.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
Baja California peninsula beginning Wednesday morning, where a 
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

3. Hurricane conditions are possible along portions of the
west-central Baja California coast on Thursday, where a hurricane
watch has been issued.  Additional tropical storm watches and 
warnings for the northern Baja California peninsula could be 
required tonight and Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/2100Z 18.8N 111.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 19.8N 112.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 21.6N 113.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 23.6N 113.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 25.9N 114.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  09/0600Z 27.8N 115.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  09/1800Z 29.3N 117.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  10/1800Z 30.7N 119.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  11/1800Z 30.5N 121.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



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