Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Kay Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ42 KNHC 061446
TCDEP2

Hurricane Kay Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122022
900 AM MDT Tue Sep 06 2022

Satellite data indicate that Kay has been relatively steady in 
strength during the past several hours.  A ragged eye feature has 
occasionally been apparent, and microwave data show that the eyewall 
and rainbands are most organized on the south side.  The latest 
satellite intensity estimates range from 65 to 77 kt, and based on 
that data, the initial intensity is held at 75 kt.  An Air Force 
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Kay later 
today.  It should be noted that Kay is a fairly large hurricane with 
its tropical-storm-force winds estimated to extend outward up to 175 
miles from the center.  Kay is also producing a large area of high 
seas, with swells currently affecting portions of southwestern 
Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula.

Kay is moving northwestward at 13 kt and it appears to be moving 
along the previous forecast track.  The track models have barely 
changed this cycle and continue to show a northwest to 
north-northwest motion continuing for the next few days as the 
hurricane moves in the flow on the western periphery of a ridge over 
Mexico.  This should take the core of Kay very near the west-central 
Baja California peninsula on Thursday and Friday.  After that time, 
a turn to the left is predicted as the system is steered by a low- 
to mid-level ridge over the western United States.  The NHC track 
forecast is basically the same as the previous one and lies closest 
to the HCCA consensus model.

The hurricane is still feeling some effects from moderate northerly 
vertical wind shear, but the models suggest that the shear should 
decrease during the next day or so.  The anticipated more conducive 
upper-level wind pattern combined with warm SSTs and a moist 
environment should allow Kay to strengthen during the next 36 hours, 
and it could become a major hurricane during that time.  Thereafter, 
sharply cooler SSTs and drier air should end the opportunity for 
strengthening and induce steady weakening.  Kay is expected to 
become a post-tropical cyclone in 4 to 5 days when it is forecast 
to be over quite cool SSTs of 21-22 C. The NHC intensity forecast 
lies near the high end of the guidance, especially during the first 
48 hours.

Although Kay is likely to weaken before it makes its closest 
approach to the west-central coast of the Baja peninsula, it is 
forecast to remain a large and strong hurricane at that time.  In 
addition, winds, surf, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the 
center so users should not focus on the exact forecast track.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Kay could lead to flash flooding, including
landslides, across portions of western Mexico, including the Baja
California peninsula, through Thursday night.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
southern Baja California peninsula beginning Wednesday morning,
where a Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect.

3. While the details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts
remain uncertain, there is increasing risk of significant wind,
surf, and rainfall impacts across the central portion of the Baja
California peninsula later this week.  A tropical storm or hurricane
watch could be issued for that region later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 18.0N 110.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 19.1N 111.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 20.7N 112.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 22.5N 113.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 24.6N 114.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  09/0000Z 26.4N 115.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  09/1200Z 28.0N 116.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  10/1200Z 30.2N 118.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  11/1200Z 30.5N 120.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



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