000 WTPZ22 KNHC 082053 TCMEP2 HURRICANE KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022 2100 UTC THU SEP 08 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD...AND FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SOUTH OF PUERTO CORTES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO CORTES TO PUNTA ABREOJOS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO PUERTO CORTES * SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER * NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO NORTHWARD ALONG THE ENTIRE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THEN SOUTHWARD TO GUAYMAS IN MAINLAND MEXICO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY AND CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 114.3W AT 08/2100Z...ON COAST POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......190NE 190SE 80SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 420SE 270SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 114.3W AT 08/2100Z...ON COAST AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 114.1W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 28.7N 115.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 30.4N 116.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 31.3N 118.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 31.7N 119.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 31.7N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 31.0N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 29.5N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 28.5N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.1N 114.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 09/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN