Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Kay Forecast Advisory


312 
WTPZ22 KNHC 080246
TCMEP2

HURRICANE KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122022
0300 UTC THU SEP 08 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
NORTH OF CABO SAN QUINTIN TO ENSENADA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CORTES TO PUNTA ABREOJOS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS
* SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS TO ENSENADA
* CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD ALONG THE ENTIRE EAST OF BAJA AND THEN
SOUTHWARD TO GUAYMAS IN MAINLAND MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF ENSENADA TO U.S./MEXICO BORDER

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY
AND CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 113.0W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.
34 KT.......200NE 160SE  80SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 510SE 360SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 113.0W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 112.9W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 25.1N 113.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...200NE 160SE  90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 27.5N 114.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...190NE 160SE  90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 29.5N 116.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE  90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 30.9N 117.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 31.6N 119.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 31.5N 119.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 30.5N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 29.0N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 113.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 08/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH





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