Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Kay Forecast Advisory


000
WTPZ22 KNHC 071443
TCMEP2

HURRICANE KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122022
1500 UTC WED SEP 07 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN. THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED ON THE EAST COAST OF BAJA 
FROM BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES NORTHWARD OVER THE ENTIRE NORTHERN COAST 
OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWARD ALONG MAINLAND MEXICO TO 
GUAYMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ON THE WEST COAST OF 
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM CABO SAN QUINTIN NORTHWARD TO 
THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO CORTES TO PUNTA ABREOJOS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS
* SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN
* CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD ALONG THE ENTIRE EAST COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA AND THEN SOUTHWARD TO GUAYMAS IN MAINLAND MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO SAN QUINTIN TO U.S./MEXICO BORDER

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY
AND CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 112.6W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  967 MB
EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.
34 KT.......200NE 160SE  80SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 480SE 330SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 112.6W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 112.4W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 22.7N 113.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.
34 KT...200NE 170SE  90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.9N 114.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...200NE 170SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 27.2N 115.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 28.9N 116.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE  90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 30.2N 117.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE  60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 30.9N 118.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE  80SE   0SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 30.9N 121.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 29.4N 121.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 112.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 07/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI




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