000 WTPZ22 KNHC 071443 TCMEP2 HURRICANE KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022 1500 UTC WED SEP 07 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED ON THE EAST COAST OF BAJA FROM BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES NORTHWARD OVER THE ENTIRE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWARD ALONG MAINLAND MEXICO TO GUAYMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ON THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM CABO SAN QUINTIN NORTHWARD TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO CORTES TO PUNTA ABREOJOS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS * SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN * CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD ALONG THE ENTIRE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THEN SOUTHWARD TO GUAYMAS IN MAINLAND MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO SAN QUINTIN TO U.S./MEXICO BORDER A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY AND CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 112.6W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT.......200NE 160SE 80SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 480SE 330SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 112.6W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 112.4W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 22.7N 113.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...200NE 170SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.9N 114.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 170SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 27.2N 115.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 28.9N 116.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 30.2N 117.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 30.9N 118.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 30.9N 121.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 29.4N 121.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 112.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 07/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI