000 WTPZ22 KNHC 070242 TCMEP2 HURRICANE KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022 0300 UTC WED SEP 07 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO CORTES TO PUNTA EUGENIA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS * CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD TO SANTA ROSALIA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SANTA ROSALIA TO BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES * NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA ON THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 111.7W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. 34 KT.......180NE 140SE 80SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 480SE 330SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 111.7W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 111.4W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.6N 112.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 120SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 22.5N 113.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...210NE 180SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.7N 114.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...210NE 180SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 26.8N 115.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 130SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 28.5N 116.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 30.0N 117.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 31.1N 120.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 30.8N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 111.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 07/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH