ZCZC MIATCMEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022 2100 UTC TUE SEP 06 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUERTO CORTES TO PUNTA EUGENIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS ON THE WEST COAST AND TO SANTA ROSALIA ON THE EAST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS ON THE WEST COAST AND FROM SANTA ROSALIA TO BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES ON THE EAST COAST. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO CORTES TO PUNTA EUGENIA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS * CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD TO SANTA ROSALIA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SANTA ROSALIA TO BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES * NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA ON THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED TONIGHT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 111.0W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. 34 KT.......180NE 140SE 80SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 480SE 330SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 111.0W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 110.7W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.8N 112.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...200NE 170SE 120SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.6N 113.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...200NE 170SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.6N 113.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...210NE 180SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 25.9N 114.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 190SE 130SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 27.8N 115.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 29.3N 117.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 30.7N 119.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 30.5N 121.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 111.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 07/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI NNNN