000 WTPZ22 KNHC 061445 TCMEP2 HURRICANE KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022 1500 UTC TUE SEP 06 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH NORTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LORETO TO SANTA ROSALIA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS * CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD TO CABO SAN LAZARO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO SANTA ROSALIA * NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA ON THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY AS HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 110.0W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......150NE 140SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 360SE 270SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 110.0W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 109.6W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.1N 111.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.7N 112.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 22.5N 113.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...210NE 180SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.6N 114.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...210NE 190SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 26.4N 115.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...190NE 170SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 28.0N 116.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...170NE 140SE 110SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 30.2N 118.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 30.5N 120.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 110.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 06/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI