759 WTPZ22 KNHC 060846 TCMEP2 HURRICANE KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122022 0900 UTC TUE SEP 06 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SOUTH OF SAN EVARISTO...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS * CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD TO CABO SAN LAZARO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO NORTHWARD TO LORETO * NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA ON THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAY AS HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 108.9W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......150NE 140SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 270SE 180SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 108.9W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 108.5W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.0N 110.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.4N 111.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.1N 113.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...210NE 180SE 160SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.1N 113.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...210NE 190SE 160SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 25.1N 114.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 26.8N 115.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...190NE 160SE 120SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 29.6N 117.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 30.3N 120.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 108.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 06/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN