000 WTPZ44 KNHC 092035 TCDEP4 Hurricane Howard Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 09 2022 Deep convection associated with Howard has decreased in intensity and become less organized today while the cyclone moves over cooler waters. Dvorak T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB have been lowered from earlier today, and the objective Dvorak intensity estimate from UW-CIMSS is below hurricane strength. Based on these values, the advisory intensity is reduced to 65 kt. Although the vertical wind shear is not forecast to increase, Howard will continue to pass over cooler ocean waters during the next couple of days. Moreover, model analyses and the presence of a field of stratocumulus clouds just to the west of the cyclone indicate that the system should soon be encountering a more stable air mass. Therefore, continued steady weakening is forecast, and the official intensity forecast is near or slightly above the model consensus. Howard should make the transition into a post tropical cyclone in 48 hours, or less. Howard remains on a west-northwestward track, and continues moving at around 300/9 kt. The track forecast philosophy is essentially unchanged from the previous few advisories. A mid-level ridge extending westward from a high pressure system over the southwestern United States should keep the system on a west-northwestward course for the next day or two. Late in the forecast period, weak post-tropical Howard should turn westward following the near-surface winds. The NHC track forecast is basically an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 22.5N 117.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 23.1N 119.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 23.8N 120.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 24.3N 122.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 24.7N 123.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/0600Z 24.9N 125.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1800Z 24.9N 126.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch