000 WTPZ44 KNHC 091436 TCDEP4 Hurricane Howard Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 09 2022 Howard has been maintaining a ragged-looking eye on geostationary imagery, but an AMSR-2 microwave overpass showed a well-defined ring of convection in the core. The current intensity is set at 75 kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB. The hurricane continues to exhibit a fairly well-defined upper-level outflow pattern, indicative of low vertical wind shear. The system is currently over marginally warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and vertical wind shear is not predicted to increase much over the next couple of days. However Howard will be passing over increasingly cooler ocean waters and into a drier, more stable air mass. These conditions should lead to steady weakening, with the cyclone becoming post-tropical over 22 deg C SSTs in about 48 hours. The official intensity forecast is very close to the latest corrected consensus guidance, HCCA. The hurricane is moving west-northwestward, or at about 300/9 kt. A generally west-northwestward track is likely over the next few days while the cyclone moves along the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge. A westward turn is expected late in the forecast period when the the increasingly shallow system becomes steered by the lower-tropospheric flow. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous NHC prediction, and remains close to the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 22.0N 116.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 22.8N 118.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 23.5N 120.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 24.2N 121.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 24.6N 123.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 12/0000Z 24.9N 124.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1200Z 25.0N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch