000 WTPZ44 KNHC 090237 TCDEP4 Hurricane Howard Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022 800 PM PDT Mon Aug 08 2022 Howard's structure has evolved over the past several hours. Although the overall amount of deep convection has decreased, thunderstorm activity in the eyewall appears better organized and more symmetric during the past few hours. Water vapor images show a pronounced dry slot channeling into the system's east side, which is likely the reason why the rainbands have become less convective. Despite the structural change, the Dvorak classifications have remained steady at 4.0/65 kt and 4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB, respectively. Based on that data, the initial intensity is held at 70 kt. Howard is just about out of time to strengthen any further. The hurricane is approaching the 26 degree C SST isotherm and dry air is already entraining into the circulation. These factors should cause a weakening trend to begin on Tuesday, and Howard will likely become a remnant low in a couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one and near the IVCN and HCCA consensus models. Over the past 12 hours, Howard has been moving to the northwest at 10 kt. A west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days as the system moves on the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge centered over the south-central and southwestern United States. A turn to the west within the low-level flow is forecast in a few days when Howard is expected to be a weak and shallow system. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and near the model consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 21.2N 115.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 22.0N 116.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 22.9N 118.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 23.6N 120.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 24.2N 121.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 11/1200Z 24.6N 123.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 12/0000Z 24.8N 124.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi