000 WTPZ44 KNHC 082042 TCDEP4 Hurricane Howard Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022 300 PM MDT Mon Aug 08 2022 Howard has continued to become better organized today, with an eye now making an appearance on infrared and visible satellite imagery. A 1433 UTC SSMIS pass indicated that deeper convective banding surrounded the center more so than it did in the earlier AMSR-2 microwave pass. The latest subjective intensity estimates are 65 and 77 kt from TAFB and SAB, respectively. The above data support raising the current intensity to 70 kt. A slight adjustment to the wind radii was performed based on recent ASCAT passes. Howard is still moving northwestward at 315/11 kt. The track guidance remains in good agreement that the northwestward motion will continue into Tuesday, as Howard is steered by a mid- to upper-level ridge to its northeast. After that time, the cyclone should gradually turn west-northwestward as the cyclone becomes more vertically shallow and is increasingly steered by the low-level trade wind flow. Only a slight adjustment to the left was made to the track forecast for this advisory. The NHC track lies between the middle of the guidance envelope and the previous official forecast. Howard likely has about another 12 hours to strengthen before it crosses the 26 C sea surface temperature (SST) isotherm. After that time, progressively cooler SSTs and drier mid-level air should cause weakening. By 60 h, Howard is forecast to lose its convection and become post-tropical. The NHC intensity forecast has been increased during the first day to better match current intensity trends and the latest IVCN and HCCA intensity guidance, but then falls in line with the previous NHC forecast from 36 h onward. It should be noted that the GFS-SHIPS rapid intensification guidance indicates a 32 percent chance of a 20 kt increase during the next 12 h, so it is possible that the 12 h intensity forecast could be somewhat conservative. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 20.6N 114.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 21.5N 115.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 22.6N 117.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 23.4N 119.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 24.0N 120.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 24.5N 122.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 11/1800Z 24.7N 123.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1800Z 24.9N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Papin/Pasch