000 WTPA41 PHFO 260256 TCDCP1 Hurricane Hone Discussion Number 15 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 500 PM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 Around noon today, high-resolution visible satellite imagery revealed Hone's partially exposed low-level circulation center emerging from the northwest edge of the deep convection, and it remains exposed at this time. As this was occurring, a U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft was completing their final mission into Hone, reporting maximum flight-level winds near 70 kt, and peak SFMR winds near 70 kt. Although Hone's structure and current satellite appearance are not exactly what one would expect with a hurricane, in deference to the aircraft data, the initial intensity for this advisory is estimated to be 65 kt. The initial motion estimate is 280/11kt, with Hone being steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to the north. Water vapor imagery and UW- CIMSS shear analyses indicate that Hone is on the verge of entering a hostile atmospheric environment, with increasingly westerly shear and dry mid-levels along the forecast track. In response, Hone is expected to gradually weaken and become increasingly shallow, steered steadily west-northwestward by the low-level high to the north. Simulated satellite imagery indicates that Hone will produce periods of sporadic convection over the next couple of days as SSTs steadily increase along the forecast track, but the persistent shear will likely lead to dissipation on or before day 5. The updated track forecast closely follows the previous, and the dynamical consensus guidance. The intensity forecast is informed by the FSSE, the intensity consenus IVCN, and SHIPS guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 19.1N 158.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 19.2N 160.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 19.3N 162.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 19.5N 164.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 19.8N 167.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 28/1200Z 20.2N 169.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 20.6N 171.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 21.2N 176.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Birchard